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The Voltage Effect
Cover of The Voltage Effect
The Voltage Effect
How to Make Good Ideas Great and Great Ideas Scale
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NATIONAL BESTSELLER • A leading economist answers one of today’s trickiest questions: Why do some great ideas make it big while others fail to take off?
 
“Brilliant, practical, and grounded in the very latest research, this is by far the best book I’ve ever read on the how and why of scaling.”—Angela Duckworth, CEO of Character Lab and New York Times bestselling author of Grit
LONGLISTED FOR THE PORCHLIGHT BUSINESS BOOK AWARD
“Scale” has become a favored buzzword in the startup world. But scale isn't just about accumulating more users or capturing more market share. It's about whether an idea that takes hold in a small group can do the same in a much larger one—whether you’re growing a small business, rolling out a diversity and inclusion program, or delivering billions of doses of a vaccine. 
 
Translating an idea into widespread impact, says University of Chicago economist John A. List, depends on one thing only: whether it can achieve “high voltage”—the ability to be replicated at scale. 
 
In The Voltage Effect, List explains that scalable ideas share a common set of attributes, while any number of attributes can doom an unscalable idea. Drawing on his original research, as well as fascinating examples from the realms of business, policymaking, education, and public health, he identifies five measurable vital signs that a scalable idea must possess, and offers proven strategies for avoiding voltage drops and engineering voltage gains. You’ll learn:
   How celebrity chef Jamie Oliver expanded his restaurant empire by focusing on scalable “ingredients” (until it collapsed because talent doesn’t scale)
   Why the failure to detect false positives early on caused the Reagan-era drug-prevention program to backfire at scale
   How governments could deliver more services to more citizens if they focused on the last dollar spent
   How one education center leveraged positive spillovers to narrow the achievement gap across the entire community
   Why the right set of incentives, applied at scale, can boost voter turnout, increase clean energy use, encourage patients to consistently take their prescribed medication, and more. 
 
By understanding the science of scaling, we can drive change in our schools, workplaces, communities, and society at large. Because a better world can only be built at scale.
NATIONAL BESTSELLER • A leading economist answers one of today’s trickiest questions: Why do some great ideas make it big while others fail to take off?
 
“Brilliant, practical, and grounded in the very latest research, this is by far the best book I’ve ever read on the how and why of scaling.”—Angela Duckworth, CEO of Character Lab and New York Times bestselling author of Grit
LONGLISTED FOR THE PORCHLIGHT BUSINESS BOOK AWARD
“Scale” has become a favored buzzword in the startup world. But scale isn't just about accumulating more users or capturing more market share. It's about whether an idea that takes hold in a small group can do the same in a much larger one—whether you’re growing a small business, rolling out a diversity and inclusion program, or delivering billions of doses of a vaccine. 
 
Translating an idea into widespread impact, says University of Chicago economist John A. List, depends on one thing only: whether it can achieve “high voltage”—the ability to be replicated at scale. 
 
In The Voltage Effect, List explains that scalable ideas share a common set of attributes, while any number of attributes can doom an unscalable idea. Drawing on his original research, as well as fascinating examples from the realms of business, policymaking, education, and public health, he identifies five measurable vital signs that a scalable idea must possess, and offers proven strategies for avoiding voltage drops and engineering voltage gains. You’ll learn:
   How celebrity chef Jamie Oliver expanded his restaurant empire by focusing on scalable “ingredients” (until it collapsed because talent doesn’t scale)
   Why the failure to detect false positives early on caused the Reagan-era drug-prevention program to backfire at scale
   How governments could deliver more services to more citizens if they focused on the last dollar spent
   How one education center leveraged positive spillovers to narrow the achievement gap across the entire community
   Why the right set of incentives, applied at scale, can boost voter turnout, increase clean energy use, encourage patients to consistently take their prescribed medication, and more. 
 
By understanding the science of scaling, we can drive change in our schools, workplaces, communities, and society at large. Because a better world can only be built at scale.
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  • From the cover Part One

    CAN YOUR IDEA SCALE?

    1

    Dupers and False Positives


    On September 14, 1986, First Lady Nancy Reagan appeared on national television to address the nation from the West Sitting Hall of the White House. She sat on a sofa next to her husband, President Ronald Reagan, and gazed into the camera. “Today there’s a drug and alcohol abuse epidemic in this country and no one is safe from it,” she said. “Not you, not me, and certainly not our children.”

    This broadcast was the culmination of all the traveling the First Lady had done over the preceding five years to raise awareness among American youth about the dangers of drug use. She had become the public face of the preventative side of President Reagan’s War on Drugs, and her message hinged on a catchphrase that millions of people still remember, which she employed once again that evening on television. “Not long ago, in Oakland, California,” Nancy Reagan told viewers, “I was asked by a group of children what to do if they were offered drugs. And I answered, ‘Just say no.’ ”

    Although there are different accounts of where this infamous slogan originated—with an academic study, an advertising agency, or the First Lady herself—its “stickiness,” to use the parlance of marketing, was undeniable. The phrase appeared on billboards, in pop songs, and on television shows; school clubs took it as a name. And in the popular imagination it became inseparable from what government and law enforcement officials saw as the crown jewel of the Reagan-era drug prevention campaign: Drug Abuse Resistance Education, or D.A.R.E.

    In 1983, Los Angeles chief of police Daryl Gates announced a shift in his department’s approach to the War on Drugs: instead of busting kids in possession of illegal substances, the new focus would be on preventing those drugs from getting into their hands in the first place. This was how D.A.R.E., with its iconic logo of red letters set against a black background, was born.

    D.A.R.E. was an educational program built on a theory from psychology called social inoculation, which took from epidemiology the concept of vaccination—administering a small dose of an infectious agent to induce immunity—and applied it to human behavior. The approach of the program was to bring uniformed officers into schools, where they would use role-playing and other educational techniques to inoculate kids against the temptations of drugs. It certainly sounded like a great idea, and the early research on D.A.R.E. was encouraging. As a result, the government opened its taxpayer-funded faucet, and soon the program was scaled up in middle schools and high schools across the country. Over the next twenty-four years, 43 million children from over forty countries would graduate from D.A.R.E.

    There was only one problem: D.A.R.E. didn’t actually work.

    In the decades since Nancy Reagan urged the nation’s youth to “just say no” to drugs, numerous studies have demonstrated that D.A.R.E. did not in fact persuade kids to just say no. It provided children with a great deal of information about drugs such as marijuana and alcohol, but it failed to produce statistically significant reductions in drug use when these same kids were presented with opportunities to use them. One study even found that the program spurred participants’ curiosity about drugs and increased the likelihood of experimentation.

    It is hard to overstate the cost of D.A.R.E.’s voltage drop at scale. For years, the program consumed the time and effort of...
About the Author-
  • John A. List is the Kenneth C. Griffin Distinguished Service Professor in Economics at the University of Chicago. He has served on the Council of Economic Advisers and is the recipient of numerous awards and honors including the Kenneth Galbraith Award. His work has been featured in The New York Times, The Economist, Harvard Business Review, Fortune, NPR, Slate, NBC, Bloomberg, and The Washington Post. List has authored over 250 peer-reviewed journal articles, several academic books, and, with Uri Gneezy, the international bestseller The Why Axis.
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The Voltage Effect
The Voltage Effect
How to Make Good Ideas Great and Great Ideas Scale
John A. List
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