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NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • A roadmap to what lies ahead and the decisions we must make now to stave off the next global economic and financial crisis, from one of the world’s most influential economic thinkers and the author of When Markets Collide • Updated, with a new chapter and author’s note “The one economic book you must read now . . . If you want to understand [our] bifurcated world and where it’s headed, there is no better interpreter than Mohamed El-Erian.”—Time Our current economic path is coming to an end. The signposts are all around us: sluggish growth, rising inequality, stubbornly high pockets of unemployment, and jittery financial markets, to name a few. Soon we will reach a fork in the road: One path leads to renewed growth, prosperity, and financial stability, the other to recession and market disorder. In The Only Game in Town, El-Erian casts his gaze toward the future of the global economy and markets, outlining the choiceswe face both individually and collectively in an era of economic uncertainty and financial insecurity. Beginning with their response to the 2008 global crisis, El-Erian explains how and why our central banks became the critical policy actors—and, most important, why they cannot continue is this role alone. They saved the financial system from collapse in 2008 and a multiyear economic depression, but lack the tools to enable a return to high inclusive growth and durable financial stability. The time has come for a policy handoff, from a prolonged period of monetary policy experimentation to a strategy that better targets what ails economies and distorts the financial sector—before we stumble into another crisis. The future, critically, is not predestined. It is up to us to decide where we will go from here as households, investors, companies, and governments. Using a mix of insights from economics, finance, and behavioral science, this book gives us the tools we need to properly understand this turning point, prepare for it, and come out of it stronger. A comprehensive, controversial look at the realities of our global economy and markets, The Only Game in Town is required reading for investors, policymakers, and anyone interested in the future.
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • A roadmap to what lies ahead and the decisions we must make now to stave off the next global economic and financial crisis, from one of the world’s most influential economic thinkers and the author of When Markets Collide • Updated, with a new chapter and author’s note “The one economic book you must read now . . . If you want to understand [our] bifurcated world and where it’s headed, there is no better interpreter than Mohamed El-Erian.”—Time Our current economic path is coming to an end. The signposts are all around us: sluggish growth, rising inequality, stubbornly high pockets of unemployment, and jittery financial markets, to name a few. Soon we will reach a fork in the road: One path leads to renewed growth, prosperity, and financial stability, the other to recession and market disorder. In The Only Game in Town, El-Erian casts his gaze toward the future of the global economy and markets, outlining the choiceswe face both individually and collectively in an era of economic uncertainty and financial insecurity. Beginning with their response to the 2008 global crisis, El-Erian explains how and why our central banks became the critical policy actors—and, most important, why they cannot continue is this role alone. They saved the financial system from collapse in 2008 and a multiyear economic depression, but lack the tools to enable a return to high inclusive growth and durable financial stability. The time has come for a policy handoff, from a prolonged period of monetary policy experimentation to a strategy that better targets what ails economies and distorts the financial sector—before we stumble into another crisis. The future, critically, is not predestined. It is up to us to decide where we will go from here as households, investors, companies, and governments. Using a mix of insights from economics, finance, and behavioral science, this book gives us the tools we need to properly understand this turning point, prepare for it, and come out of it stronger. A comprehensive, controversial look at the realities of our global economy and markets, The Only Game in Town is required reading for investors, policymakers, and anyone interested in the future.
Due to publisher restrictions the library cannot purchase additional copies of this title, and we apologize if there is a long waiting list. Be sure to check for other copies, because there may be other editions available.
Due to publisher restrictions the library cannot purchase additional copies of this title, and we apologize if there is a long waiting list. Be sure to check for other copies, because there may be other editions available.
Excerpts-
From the book
Chapter 1
Setting the Stage
“Like ancient doctors, who tried to explain the causes of diseases while knowing nothing about germs or bacteria, academics sought to describe the functioning of developed economies while ignoring the financial sector and the risks it contained.”
—Ferdinando Giugliano
This is a pivotal moment for the global economy. Our romance with the financial service industry—“finance”—has come crashing down in the midst of loud recriminations. With trust broken and the blame game continuing, it is simply not feasible to restore a close and warm relationship, and any relationship that does survive certainly shouldn’t be as intimate and exclusionary as the one that prevailed in the run-up to the 2008 global financial crisis. Yet breaking up is also not an option. The interconnectedness and interdependencies among real economies and the financial system are too deep for them to ever go their own separate ways—and so their interaction is still critical in determining growth, jobs, and financial stability.
Recognizing the importance for both current and future generations of establishing a better working relationship between global economics and global finance, central banks have been working overtime since the global financial crisis to buy time. They have engaged in a series of unprecedented policy initiatives using experimental measures—and taking enormous risks.
The stakes are extremely high and, as yet, no specific outcome is preordained—if only because, acting on their own, central banks cannot deliver the needed good outcome involving that important and quite elusive combination of high and inclusive growth, plentiful well-paying jobs, low and stable inflation, and genuine well-anchored financial stability. Governments and politicians need to be more constructively engaged in the endeavor with central banks, and we, as individuals, through our preparedness and actions, also have a lot to do with what eventually transpires in the collective effort to overcome the damage left by the failed romance.
Parts of the global economy are healing and regaining their composure, led by the United States. But others, such as countries in Europe and Japan, continue to languish and are still a ways from decisively turning the corner. Still others, such as Greece and Venezuela, face the imminent risk of awful tipping points. Meanwhile, a less than fully rehabilitated financial sector continues to deliver one anomaly after the other. These are not just confined to obscure technical corners. They are visibly relevant for you—whether you are an investor looking for relatively safe returns on your savings, a small company looking for working capital, or a family looking to reclaim your financial destiny and establish a durable sense of long-term stability and security.
There was a time—and it was not so long ago—when governments would pay you interest income in order to convince you to hold the bonds they issued to finance their spending overages. After all, shouldn’t you be compensated for assuming risks for your money? Today a sizable amount of government bonds in Europe is trading at negative nominal yields—that is to say, investors are paying governments for the opportunity to lend them money!
There was a time—and, again, it was not so long ago—that banks would compete for your deposits. From free toasters to cash handouts, they were eager to get their hands on your money. It is no longer the case. A growing number of banks in...
About the Author-
Mohamed A. El-Erian is the chair of President Obama’s Global Development Council and chief economic advisor at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he was previously the CEO and co-CIO. He is a contributing editor at the Financial Times and a Bloomberg columnist. Earlier in his career, he served as Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund, Managing Director at Salomon Smith Barney, and president and CEO of the Harvard Management Company. El-Erian was on Foreign Policy’s list of Top 100 Global Thinkers for four consecutive years, and named by that journal as one of the 500 most powerful people on the planet. He is regularly on CNN, CNBC, and Bloomberg, and his writings have also appeared in Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Business Insider, Newsweek, The Atlantic, Latin Finance, Project Syndicate, and other outlets. El-Erian’s last book, When Markets Collide, was a New York Times and Wall Street Journal bestseller, won the Financial Times/Goldman Sachs Award for best business book of the year, was named as a best book of the year by The Economist, and was called a best business book of all time by TheIndependent. El-Erian earned his master’s degree and doctorate at Oxford University, having obtained his undergraduate degree at the University of Cambridge, where he holds an honorary fellowship at Queens’ College.
Reviews-
January 4, 2016 El-Erian, former CEO of investment firm Pimco, sets the stage for his well-informed, if sometimes overstretched, argument with a Larry Summers quote: "The world has largely exhausted the scope for central bank improvisation as a growth strategy." Central banks have pulled the world out of the Great Recession, but the critical task of creating sustainable global economic growthânot temporary money bubblesâremains. If governments don't accomplish this, they risk opening a geopolitical Pandora's Box: generational joblessness; worsening inequality; eroding institutional credibility; political dysfunction; and financial excess. El-Erian's formula for avoiding this is reduced to four basic prescriptions: seriously address economic growth; match ability and willingness to spend; reduce the burden of debt; and improve policy coordination. El-Erian is at his best when he sticks to what he knows: finance. But his thesis is that finance only takes you so far, so his book's last section finds him verging into trendy but less relevant territory with references to "cognitive diversity" and quotes from Sheryl Sandberg. These passages tend to deviate from his usual intellectual rigor with Oprah-like feel-good mantras. Nonetheless, this is a prescient warning against our current overreliance on central banksâand a call to action toward building a sustainable global economy. Agent: Andrew Wylie, Wylie Agency.
February 1, 2016
El-Erian (chief economic adviser, Allianz; chair, President's Global Development Council) examines the subject of central banks in his latest book, following his award-winning When Markets Collide. Rather than providing a simple overview of central banks and their role, El-Erian uses the bank as a backdrop for discussing the current crossroads he sees in the global economy and the role these institutions could play in shaping the future. After presenting ten big issues, including those related to unemployment, economic expansion, and political dysfunction, El-Erian provides his ideas for what should happen next, but also for what is likely to happen, a distinction he explains as the difference between what is desirable and what is actually feasible given the current political environment. VERDICT This easy-to-read discussion from a well-respected financial industry insider on the current state of the economy and the role of central banks will satisfy anyone who wants to learn about economics or the policy decisions that affect financial stability.--Elizabeth Nelson, McHenry Cty. Coll. Lib., Crystal Lake, IL
Copyright 2016 Library Journal, LLC Used with permission.
Steven Rattner, The New York Times Book Review
"[Mohamed A.] El-Erian expertly offers a balanced view, commending the central banks for their necessarily aggressive policy views while noting, for example, the failure of the Fed to recognize the pre-crisis housing bubble. But title aside, this is hardly just a book about central banks. Instead, El-Erian offers a grand tour of the challenges we face, along with ideal solutions and more likely outcomes. . . . We desperately need a system in which the central banks are no longer the only game in town."
Lawrence H. Summers, former secretary of the U.S. Treasury
"Mohamed El-Erian has had an extraordinary career as an investment analyst, investor, and market commentator. His 'new normal' concept was prescient, provocative, and has proven out. Agree or disagree, his go-forward thoughts contained in this bracing book are well worth considering."
Jack Welch
"The Only Game in Town achieves the nearly impossible: It takes complex financial issues and events and makes them both enlightening and entertaining. It's a must-read for anyone who cares about the global economy and its future, raising critical questions, exploring all the relevant topics, and offering sound policy recommendations. It's a terrific book."
Jessica Mathews, former president, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
"The Only Game in Town may well be the only book you need to read on how the global financial system works, the serious trouble we may be in, and what to do about it. El-Erian's gift for clarity and his use of compelling examples make important economic issues accessible."--Anne-Marie Slaughter, president and CEO, New America "From the rise of Airbnb and disruptive technologies to worries about Russian foreign policy and turmoil in the Middle East to negative interest rates and 'the new mediocre,' the world is an increasingly confusing place. The job of policymakers is mind-bogglingly hard. Who better than Mohamed El-Erian, with his knowledge of markets, his knowledge of policy, and his brilliant mind, to help organize their (and our) thoughts. The Only Game in Town is a great read."--Olivier Blanchard, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics "Today's global economy is beset by low growth and rising inequality. By looking at the tools now being used by the world's major central banks, Mohamed El-Erian shows how we can instead promote inclusive economic growth. This is a must-read from one of the most astute financial analysts of our time."--Walter Isaacson, author of Steve Jobs "Widely regarded as one of the most astute observers of global economic trends, Mohamed El-Erian is famous for having coined the now-ubiquitous phrase 'the new normal.' Five years ago, he was worried that the global economy might take years to regain its footing. Now El-Erian worries it could fall off a cliff. The Only Game in Town is simply a must-read for anyone trying to understand how the global economy might unfold in the next five years."--Kenneth Rogoff, Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy at Harvard University, and former chief economist and director of research at the International Monetary Fund "Mohamed El-Erian knows the global economy as an investor, a public servant, and as an analyst with a rare ability to grasp its essentials. He has an urgent message to convey here: Central banks cannot continue to carry the global economy on their backs for much longer without a high risk of a very bad global outcome. If he's right--as he has often been before--all of us, governments, business, finance, and individuals, need to understand why and how to take evasive action."
Alan Krueger, Bendheim Professor of Economics and Public Affairs, Princeton University
"This book is a must-read for anyone interested in the global economy. It's a masterful account of how central banks became the only game in town after the global financial crisis but also how other structural and fiscal policies are necessary to resolve key global economic issues. El-Erian is the best thinker on the key global issues of our times."--Nouriel Roubini, chairman, Roubini Global Economics, and professor of economics, Stern School of Bus
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